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Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 '''''01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC) First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools . 10L. 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC) January Welcome to the 2012 Pacific typhoon season! --Andrew444TalkBlog 15:47, January 1, 2012 (UTC) 98W.INVEST Nice start to the season...--Cyclone10 17:29, January 1, 2012 (UTC) This is actually part of the 2011 PTS since it formed on December 29. —13R. '' 17:49, January 1, 2012 (UTC) Gone.--Cyclone10 19:23, January 1, 2012 (UTC) 90W.INVEST What happened to 99W?--Cyclone10 02:56, January 3, 2012 (UTC) It formed, it dissipated. —13R. ''' 03:08, January 3, 2012 (UTC) 91W.INVEST ...--Cy10 16:27, January 13, 2012 (UTC) Long gone.--Cy10-- 04:17, February 11, 2012 (UTC) February 92W.INVEST Another one.--Cy10-- 04:17, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Gone.--Cy10-- 18:22, February 17, 2012 (UTC) 01W.NONAME 93W.INVEST Near the Phillippines Allanjeffs 00:00, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 01W Now a depression.--Cy10-- 16:32, February 17, 2012 (UTC) Probable we are watching the first name of the season.Allanjeffs 17:42, February 17, 2012 (UTC) Gone after 2nd warning. What a waste of time. 21:43, February 17, 2012 (UTC) : How is it gone? Since when was the JTWC a RSMC for the WPAC, Ruby? —''12R. '' 22:08, February 17, 2012 (UTC) : It still can become Pakhar anyways.Allanjeffs 22:28, February 17, 2012 (UTC) : Maybe it still could. Tropical cyclones are systems that could do all sorts of crazy things. Above i meant by the JTWC. I did not see that JMA had stopped issuing advisories. Anyway, this system will likely be a very little system if anything, due to wind shear, which it looks to be the case. 23:55, February 17, 2012 (UTC) : The JMA says that this would become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours it is still not out.Allanjeffs 05:34, February 18, 2012 (UTC) : I'd like to see this become Tropical Storm Pakhar. Andrew444TalkBlog 21:48, February 19, 2012 (UTC) :: If it becomes Pakhar, it would be the first time the name would be used following the retirement of Typhoon Matsa in 2005. Pakhar, if it does form, would only live for a short time. Ryan1000 00:41, February 20, 2012 (UTC) It will not become a TS as the last advisory was issued 12 hours ago. Still being mentioned as a TD in marine forecasts. —''12R. '' 01:04, February 21, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 01W According to marine bull, it has dissipated. —''12R. '' 12:30, February 21, 2012 (UTC) March 94W.INVEST Another one near the Philippines.Cy10 15:25, March 18, 2012 (UTC) Gone.Cy10 04:35, March 20, 2012 (UTC) 95W.INVEST Another one.Cy10 04:35, March 20, 2012 (UTC) probably will be the first name storm of the season.Allanjeffs 05:31, March 25, 2012 (UTC) Nope. It's gone.Cy10 23:23, March 27, 2012 (UTC) 02W.PAKHAR 96W.INVEST ...and another one.Cy10 04:35, March 20, 2012 (UTC) Both 96W and 95W are still here! :O .Cy10 20:20, March 24, 2012 (UTC) TCFA!Cy10 12:17, March 28, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Pakhar Upgraded!Cy10 Finally!!!!! the first name storm of the season in this basin has come to life.Allanjeffs 03:05, March 29, 2012 (UTC) : I do not like the looks of Pakhar... It looks like it could be a big flood catastrophe for the folks in South Vietnam in the future. Pakhar, a name submitted by Laos meaning a freshwater fish in the Mekong river, is the first time it was used this year following Matsa's retirement in 2005. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC) : Oh my God Pakhar become a typhoon!!!that was fast.Allanjeffs 02:47, March 30, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Pakhar (2nd time) Downgraded according to Wikipedia. AndrewTalk To Me 15:18, March 31, 2012 (UTC) Yeah, it's starting to fall apart a little. It has the strength to make it to South Vietnam, but it will likely only be a weak tropical storm by the time it does so. Ryan1000 18:41, March 31, 2012 (UTC) Pakhar is about to make landfall.Cy10 04:20, April 1, 2012 (UTC) Pakhar has been comfirmed to have killed at least 2 people (it made landfall now), but the impacts weren't very severe for the folks over there. It might have actually brought some benefiial rain for crop growth. Ryan1000 15:43, April 1, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Pakhar just clouds and a lot of rain left of this system.Allanjeffs 04:44, April 2, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Pakhar It's gone.Cy10 12:11, April 3, 2012 (UTC) 90C.INVEST Now in the WPAC.Cy10 20:03, April 8, 2012 (UTC) Long gone. AndrewTalk To Me 01:04, April 16, 2012 (UTC) April 97W.INVEST New invest.Cy10 01:55, April 25, 2012 (UTC) *yawn*...Whoa, what? Well, at least we have something to watch here on the wiki now. But, the WPac, like the rest of the world, is full of monstrous wind shear at this time. I would not expect much to happen with this thing, if anything more than what it is now. Ryan1000 02:10, April 25, 2012 (UTC) Its a disturbance atm per NWS Tiyan. They are only expecting gusts to reach 25-30 mph there. —''12R. '' 11:54, April 25, 2012 (UTC) Now a depression according to JMA.Cyclone10 17:55, April 29, 2012 (UTC) May 98W.INVEST Near the Philippines.Cyclone10 20:31, May 2, 2012 (UTC) This one is gone too.Cyclone10 12:08, May 3, 2012 (UTC) 99W.INVEST Where is everyone?Cyclone10 15:33, May 5, 2012 (UTC) Hi. I'm here. Looks like the WPAC is dead. AndrewTalk To Me 19:53, May 5, 2012 (UTC) : Poof!Cyclone10 20:11, May 15, 2012 (UTC) 90W.INVEST ....Cyclone10 19:48, May 11, 2012 (UTC) 91W.INVEST New invests.Cyclone10 19:48, May 11, 2012 (UTC) : This one is gone.Cyclone10 04:33, May 12, 2012 (UTC) 92W.INVEST New one.Cyclone10 20:11, May 15, 2012 (UTC) And gone.Cyclone10 02:49, May 16, 2012 (UTC) 93W.INVEST This is boring.Cyclone10 20:52, May 18, 2012 (UTC) 03W.SANVU 94W.INVEST ...Cyclone10 20:52, May 18, 2012 (UTC) : This one is on the verge of being renumbered + become a large typhoon. Yqt1001 01:55, May 21, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 03W I know we're all distrcted by the Atlantic and EPac, but WPac has something going as well; this could become Sanvu over the next day or two. Ryan1000 10:50, May 21, 2012 (UTC) : And a typhoon too.Allanjeffs 12:53, May 21, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Sanvu Upgrade it.Allanjeffs 01:12, May 22, 2012 (UTC) :: Upgrade to tsAllanjeffs 21:00, May 21, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Sanvu First official Typhoon of the 2012 Pacific Typhoon season.Allanjeffs 20:51, May 23, 2012 (UTC) :::: Looks pretty nice. We might see a typhoon from Sanvu, and the folks in the Marina Islands better watch out for this thing. It could get a little nasty there. Ryan1000 02:53, May 22, 2012 (UTC) :::::That came pretty fast.--Cyclone10 21:52, May 23, 2012 (UTC) :::::Are you sure Sanvu is a typhoon? I don't see the upgrade on the JMA website. AndrewTalk To Me 22:10, May 23, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Exactly. We should start relying on official sources instead of unofficial sources. —''12R. '' 22:52, May 23, 2012 (UTC) ::::::I think that JWTC is an organization with a lot of respect and they have Sanvu at typhoon strength.Allanjeffs 23:49, May 23, 2012 (UTC) The JTWC was around ever since World War 2; heck, the JMA didn't even start to take over the WPac until the start of the 21st century. The JMA doesn't use the Saffir-Simpson scale like the NHC and JTWC do; 3 or 10-minute winds aren't always the best ways to measure intensities of tropicl cyclones. Pakhar wasn't a typhoon on the JMA scale, but it did have winds over 74 mph, and is a cat. one in the JTWC's book. It probrably will be one on their scale soon anyways. Ryan1000 23:55, May 23, 2012 (UTC) I know everyone's gone from here because we're distracted by Bud, but Sanvu is a pretty sizeable typhoon and could impact Iwo Jima over the next day or two. We need to have some attention here too, you know. Ryan1000 21:24, May 25, 2012 (UTC) To tell you the true Ryan I taught that Sanvu was weakening so that why I didn`t come.Allanjeffs 22:18, May 25, 2012 (UTC) Nah, it's not weakening, it's just staying neutral in intensity. It will weaken in the future, but now, there are a few islands in Sanvu's path that need to watch out for this thing. Ryan1000 12:56, May 26, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Sanvu (2nd time) Now it's powering down, Sanvu should dissipate in the next day or two as it shoots towards the northeast. Ryan1000 22:24, May 26, 2012 (UTC) : The strong convection and higher level clouds are peeling away. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 22:33, May 26, 2012 (UTC) ::: Now 50 knots.Cyclone10 03:26, May 27, 2012 (UTC) Post-tropical Cyclone Sanvu Extratropical now. It's down and out. Ryan1000 03:11, May 28, 2012 (UTC) Next.....Allanjeffs 07:39, May 28, 2012 (UTC) 04W.MAWAR 95W.INVEST New one. Looks good. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 11:21, May 30, 2012 (UTC) :TCFA.Cyclone10 02:38, May 31, 2012 (UTC) ::The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Index gives 95W a 3, which is pretty high. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 03:06, May 31, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 04W Gained sufficient organization to be classified, expected to impact Phillipines in a bit. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 20:06, May 31, 2012 (UTC) :It's a large system, but it's in near perfect RI conditions. If it can overcome it's size it might become one of the strongest storms of the year. I'm not joking, this storm has probably the best conditions I have ever seen. 5kts shear underneath an anti-cyclone, 30C waters and 100 TCHP values. It's already started to consolidate and spin, if it keeps it up an eye should appear in about 6-12 hours. Yqt1001 00:54, June 1, 2012 (UTC) ::The JTWC forecast only brings it to 80 kts (90 mph), but I would take it all the way to 130 kts for the moment. And 100 TCHP? At the moment it looks more like 160 TCHP. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 01:07, June 1, 2012 (UTC) We're gonna be looking at Mawar soon. Although it will probrably miss the Philipines, the folks near Tokyo could be hit with this storm in the long run. Ryan1000 01:16, June 1, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Mawar (Ambo) Still expected to peak only at 85 kt but anyways, its now Mawar. It sort of broke down on the north end but it is coming back and gaining a bunch of spiral banding. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:14, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :Now Ambo.Cyclone10 14:38, June 1, 2012 (UTC) ::Latest SSMIS pass reveals that Mawar is attempting to form an eye. --'CobraStrike ' (t)(b)( ) 23:57, June 1, 2012 (UTC) Mawar bumped up to 55 kts (65 mph). Mawar is a huge system, but RI has not occurred yet. I don't know, but does JTWC use 1-minute sustained in their text bulletins? 96W.INVEST Another one, doesn't look as good.--'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 11:21, May 30, 2012 (UTC) :All the energy got soaked up by Mawar... gone. --'CobraStrike ' (t)(b)( ) 13:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC) June 97W.INVEST Here comes another invest. This one takes the place of 96W. --'CobraStrike ' (t)(b)( ) 19:50, June 1, 2012 (UTC) 98W.INVEST And another one. This one looks better than 97W, but dang this is really close to the equator. It must be like something on the order of 3-4 degrees north or something. --'CobraStrike ' (t)(b)( ) 19:50, June 1, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Here's my predictions: *Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths. *Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass. Cyclone10 03:27, May 27, 2012 (UTC) : Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC) Mine: #Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme. --AndrewTalk To Me 15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC)